19th December 2008

Wind Storm?

posted in Aviation, Technology, Weather |

All the TV news are hyping up a National Weather Service advisory that we are supposed to have some crazy big wind storm with sustained winds 50-70mph, gusts to 90mph tomorrow night. If the winds really hit that big, it would be a big deal.

The thing is, from reading the weather data, I don’t see it. Check here- http://adds.aviationweather.gov/winds/. You can scroll different time periods, and of course anyone reading this weeks from now all the old data will be gone.

In any case, what I see is a low pressure front coming in off the cost tomorrow afternoon/evening. I see some 50mph surface winds off the coast, but I don’t see anything coming inland to Seattle more than 25mph. Also, while its a low, its not that strong of a low as such things go (989 mb). As it develops Sunday morning the strong winds will be to the SW of the low, well off shore. By the time the low comes on shore its 1001mb, which is hardly a low at all, and the winds are no big deal.

The only possible thing is that the pressure lines do stack up pretty tightly on the East side of the low which is right over Seattle. So while the winds forecast doesn’t show anything there, it could be disguised. But I’m still suspicious that this isn’t really that big a deal.

We will know in a couple of days- I’ll report back whether I was right or not.

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